Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Seat-Sharing Storm Rocks NDA and Mahagathbandhan

As the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 approach, political heat has soared across Patna’s corridors and the dusty lanes of Siwan, Rajgir, and Gaya. With just days left for filing nominations for Phase 1, both the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) and the Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc) are entangled in internal struggles, unresolved seat-sharing formulas, and restless allies.

The once-predictable Bihar politics has turned into a thrilling suspense — Who will contest where? Will allies stay united? Can Nitish Kumar hold his coalition together again?

Let’s dive deep into the latest developments shaping Bihar’s most dramatic election season.

🔥 Top Headlines (as of October 15, 2025)

• NDA cracks widen: Upendra Kushwaha says, “Nothing is well in NDA,” as RLM protests its meagre seat share.

• BJP & JD(U) to contest 101 seats each — parity for the first time in years.

• HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party) gets 6 seats, while LJP (Ram Vilas) secures 29.

• RJD likely to contest 135 seats, Congress 61, as per sources close to the INDIA bloc.

• BJP’s first candidate list (71 names) released — both Deputy CMs to contest again; Assembly Speaker Nand Kishore Yadav denied a ticket.

• Mahagathbandhan still stuck in finalizing candidates; Congress demanding more seats than RJD is willing to concede.

• Nitish Kumar’s position under watch, as JDU insiders whisper about “ticket-selling” and internal betrayal.

⚖️ NDA’s Seat-Sharing Deal: A Tightrope Walk

The NDA, led by BJP and JD(U), announced its seat-sharing deal on Sunday:
👉 101 seats each for BJP and JD(U)
👉 29 for LJP (Ram Vilas)
👉 6 for HAM (Jitan Ram Manjhi)
👉 6 for RLM (Upendra Kushwaha)

While the numbers look balanced on paper, the reality is far from peaceful.

💢 Upendra Kushwaha’s Revolt

RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha, feeling sidelined with just six seats, has expressed open displeasure. His statement — “This decision will sadden thousands of our supporters” — signals that all is not well within the NDA. He’s now planning to meet Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi, intensifying speculations of a rift.

Kushwaha’s discontent is crucial because his Kurmi-Koeri vote base in central Bihar can swing tight contests. Losing his active cooperation could cost NDA key rural seats.

🧩 HAM’s Quiet Acceptance

In contrast, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM has accepted its six seats without public friction. Analysts believe this silence is strategic — HAM prefers to stay in NDA’s fold to ensure political relevance, even with limited influence.

🧠 BJP’s Caste Calculus

BJP’s first list of 71 candidates reveals smart social engineering:

• More representation to EBCs and OBCs, countering anti-incumbency.

• Around 30% new faces to project a “clean and dynamic” image.

• Significant female participation to widen appeal across demographics.

Deputy CMs Samrat Choudhary (Tarapur) and Vijay Kumar Sinha are contesting again, signaling the party’s faith in its existing leadership.

🟢 Nitish Kumar’s Balancing Act

JD(U) chief and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar insists he’s “absolutely happy” with the seat deal. Yet, party insiders claim otherwise — some leaders accuse close aides of “ticket-selling” and “favouritism.”
For Nitish, this election isn’t just about winning — it’s about proving he still commands respect inside the NDA and across Bihar’s complex caste spectrum.

🔴 The Mahagathbandhan Mess: Delays, Disputes, and Dilemmas

While NDA’s drama unfolds publicly, the Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc) isn’t in great shape either.

⚔️ RJD vs Congress

• RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, wants to contest 135 seats.

• Congress is demanding 61 to 65, citing its national role and 2020 performance.

• Left parties (CPI-ML, CPI, CPM) are expecting around 18-20 seats combined.

This deadlock has delayed the opposition’s campaign start, allowing NDA to dominate early headlines.

In a viral incident, Lalu Prasad Yadav distributed tickets ahead of an official deal — only for Tejashwi to stop the process midway, exposing lack of coordination.

🕰️ Time Running Out

With the nomination deadline for Phase 1 just days away, Mahagathbandhan’s delay could cost them organizational strength. Bihar’s rural voters respond well to early, visible campaigning — and NDA is already in the field with rallies and booth meetings.

🧭 The Ground Reality: Caste, Candidature, and Chemistry

Bihar’s politics is not merely about alliances — it’s about identity arithmetic.

• OBCs (Other Backward Classes) remain the backbone of both alliances. BJP and JD(U) are betting on strong OBC candidates, while RJD banks on its traditional Yadav-Muslim equation.

• EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) hold decisive sway in northern and central districts. BJP’s Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary, himself an OBC leader, is key to mobilizing this base.

• Dalit votes are split between LJP (Ram Vilas) and HAM.

• Upper castes, traditionally BJP supporters, may swing based on candidate credibility and anti-incumbency sentiments.

The challenge lies in keeping this delicate balance intact while projecting unity at the top.

🧩 Possible Scenarios Before Polling

ScenarioWhat It MeansPolitical ImpactKushwaha exits NDARLM contests alone or joins INDIA blocWeakens NDA’s hold in central BiharCongress-RJD seat deal finalized soonOpposition unity restoredBoosts Mahagathbandhan’s moraleRebel candidates in both campsParallel fights in several constituenciesFragmented vote share, unpredictable outcomesNitish regains controlSmooth coordination inside NDANDA projects stability and experienceVoter backlash over ticket favoritismLocal anger in both alliancesFavors independent candidates and smaller parties

📅 What to Watch in Coming Days

• Kushwaha’s Delhi meeting with Amit Shah — can NDA calm the storm?

• Final seat-sharing announcement from Mahagathbandhan.

• Phase-wise candidate lists from BJP, JD(U), RJD, and Congress.

• Possible rebel nominations from disgruntled leaders.

• Campaign trail kick-off by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar.

🗣️ Expert Insight: The Real Battle Lies in Perception

Political observers agree that 2025 will test coalition politics like never before.

• For the NDA, unity and discipline will decide whether Nitish remains Chief Minister.

• For the Mahagathbandhan, coordination and timing could mean the difference between resurgence and repetition of 2020’s defeat.

The real war is not just for 243 seats — it’s for the narrative of Bihar’s next decade: progress vs paralysis, leadership vs legacy.

🧾 Conclusion: Bihar’s 2025 Election – A Political Chessboard in Motion

With every passing hour, Bihar’s 2025 elections are shaping into a complex battle of ego, identity, and endurance. While NDA projects unity, internal rifts tell another story. On the other hand, the INDIA bloc struggles to even finalize its strategy.

Ultimately, Bihar’s voters — sharp, aware, and politically seasoned — will decide whether they trust experience or seek change.

One thing is certain: This election is not just about who wins; it’s about who stays together till the end.