Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Defence Pact: A Game-Changer in Regional Geopolitics?

In a historic development, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) that has instantly altered the power dynamics of South Asia and the Middle East. What makes this pact particularly significant is Pakistan’s open statement that its nuclear capabilities could be made available to Saudi Arabia if required. This comes at a time when Riyadh is seeking new allies beyond its traditional security partnership with the United States, and Pakistan is reasserting its role as a central player in the Islamic world.

The announcement has triggered swift reactions from India, cautious responses from the West, and excitement across some Arab nations. But what does this pact really mean for global geopolitics? Let’s dive deeper.

Background of the Defence Pact

• On 17 September 2025, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) in Riyadh.

• The pact commits both nations to mutual assistance in case of external aggression.

• Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif fueled controversy by claiming that Saudi Arabia would now come under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella.

• The deal comes against the backdrop of Riyadh’s concerns over Iran’s growing influence and its declining trust in U.S. security guarantees.

Why Saudi Arabia Turned to Pakistan

• Declining U.S. Reliability

  • For decades, Riyadh relied on Washington for security. However, after Washington’s mixed responses during regional crises, Saudi Arabia has been diversifying its alliances.

• Pakistan as a Nuclear Power

  • Pakistan is the only Muslim-majority nation with nuclear weapons.

  • A long-standing belief in Western capitals is that Pakistan could share its “Islamic bomb” with Saudi Arabia under certain conditions.

• Energy & Petrodollars

  • Saudi Arabia has been Pakistan’s economic lifeline, providing oil on deferred payments and billions in aid. This pact formalizes a security-for-oil arrangement.

India’s Reaction

India has reacted with measured caution:

• The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) stated that it expects Saudi Arabia to respect mutual interests and sensitivities.

• Experts in India believe this could be more of a symbolic alliance than an immediate threat, given Saudi Arabia’s traditionally balanced ties with New Delhi.

• However, security planners in South Block are examining worst-case scenarios, especially if Riyadh openly supports Pakistan in a future India-Pakistan conflict.

Regional and Global Implications

1. Impact on India

• India’s growing defence and energy partnership with Saudi Arabia may come under strain.

• The pact provides Pakistan diplomatic leverage, especially if tensions with India escalate.

• However, many analysts argue Saudi Arabia will not risk alienating India, one of its largest trade partners and a crucial energy customer.

2. Middle East Dynamics

• This pact strengthens an Islamic bloc led by Saudi Arabia, with Pakistan as its security guarantor.

• Iran and Israel will closely watch this alignment, as it could reshape power equations in West Asia.

3. U.S. & Western Concerns

• The U.S. sees this as a sign of Riyadh moving away from Washington’s security umbrella.

• Western analysts worry about nuclear proliferation risks, as Pakistan’s “nuclear sharing” statements alarm non-proliferation regimes.

4. China’s Shadow

• China, already a close partner of both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, benefits from this pact.

• It aligns well with Beijing’s Belt and Road strategy and could help China project power in both South Asia and the Gulf.

Contradictions Within Pakistan

Interestingly, Pakistan’s Defence Minister’s remarks about nuclear sharing created confusion. Later, Pakistani officials clarified that the pact was not directed against any third country, an attempt to calm Indian concerns and avoid Western backlash.

Voices from the Ground

• Shehbaz Sharif on X: Expressed gratitude to MBS for an “unprecedented welcome” and highlighted the “brotherly bond” between the two nations.

• Pakistan Foreign Office: Celebrated the pact as a “historic step for Muslim unity”.

• Analysts in India: Called it a “dodgy insurance policy” that may not change much in real terms but complicates India’s strategic calculus.

• International Experts: Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer called it a development that could “change life for India, no question.”

Could More Arab Nations Join?

Reports suggest that other Arab states may consider joining this pact, turning it into a broader Islamic security alliance. If that happens, it could become a parallel structure to NATO-style collective defence, but with nuclear undertones.

Conclusion

The Saudi Arabia–Pakistan defence pact is not just another bilateral agreement. It represents:

• A symbolic nuclear umbrella for Riyadh.

• Pakistan’s attempt to revive its relevance in global geopolitics.

• Saudi Arabia’s strategic pivot away from the U.S. and towards new alliances.

For India, the situation calls for careful diplomatic balancing—ensuring strong ties with Saudi Arabia while preparing for potential new challenges in South Asia.

This agreement may or may not result in immediate security shifts, but one thing is certain: it has changed the conversation on regional security in South Asia and the Middle East forever.